Monday, September 22, 2008

Newest Poll: AsAms. support Obama/McCain by 3.4/1

Great news! Since 80-20 has endorsed Obama/Biden on 8/4, things have improved greatly. The latest poll result on how Asian Ams may vote is shown below. If the election were today, Asian Americans nationwide favor Obama over McCain by a 3.4 To 1 ratio or by 77% to 23%. The margin of error in this 80-20 poll is +/- 10%.

Details about the polls are shown in the appendix, if you are interested.

Exciting 80-20 activities in the presidential race will be reported to you often from here on. When the Obama/Biden team wins, we'll get our equal opportunity in workplaces. Thank you.

Respectfully yours,

S. B. Woo
Member, Executive Comm., 80-20 PAC, Inc.

APPENDIX: About 80-20's Polls

[A] Background:

80-20 takes frequent polls. Some of you might even have participated in some 80-20 polls. 80-20 recently took 3 polls:

1) A benchmark poll on 7/27/08: It was taken a few days before 80- 20's Endorsement Convention. The sample is 2400 person who mildly support 80-20, of whom 1 in 10 are 80-20 members. They favored Obama over McCain by a 3.8 To 1 ratio. (Note that the absolute value of 3.8 is NOT meaningful, since the sample is mildly supportive of 80-20.)

2) An updated poll on 9/18: Since the last poll, 80-20 had endorsed Obama; Obama had picked Biden and McCain had chosen Palin. 80-20 wanted to find out how all of that has impacted the Asian Am votes. The same poll was sent to the same email list, although those who happened to respond to the poll may be different persons. They now favor Obama over McCain by a 4.9 To 1 ratio. Good progress!

3) An un-biased poll of Asian Am. voters. The questions used in polls 1) and 2) were sent to a random sample of Asian Ams. whose attitude towards 80-20 is unknown but who are almost all registered voters. This group supports Obama over McCain by a 3.4 To 1 ratio. In this poll the absolute value of 3.4 is meaningful. It means that Asian Ams. will favor Obam over McCain by 3.4 to 1.

80-20 has delivered increasingly larger bloc votes to its endorsed candidates. It was 65% in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections; 70% in the 2006 Congressional election, and 75% in Calif's Democratic primary on Feb. 5, 2008.

This year, Asian Ams may be supporting 80-20's endorsed presidential candidate by a whopping 80% to 20% bloc vote - our namesake.

[B] The Poll Contents:

1. I am
a) not registered to vote
b) registered as a Democrat
c) registered as an Independent/undeclared
d) registered as a Republican.

2. If the election were today, I'll vote for
a) Senator McCain
b) Sen. Obama
c) not vote
d) others

3. 80-20 works for Asian American interests
a) strongly agree
b) agree
c) no opinion
d) disagree
e) strongly disagree
[Poll Result? About 80% of the respondents chose 3a) and 3b). Only 5% chose 3d) and 3e).]

[C] The Composition of Participants in the Polls:

1. I am
a) not registered to vote:
7/27/08 bench poll -6%; 9/18 updated poll -6%; 9/18 un-biased poll -6%
b) registered as a Democrat:
7/27/08 bench poll -52%; 9/18 updated poll -36%; 9/18 un-biased poll -42%
c) registered as an Indep/Decline:
7/27/08 bench poll -28%; 9/18 updated poll -46%; 9/18 un-biased poll -38%
d) registered as a Republican:
7/27/08 bench poll -14%; 9/18 updated poll -12%; 9/18 un-biased poll -14%

The % of the Republicans in all 3 polls shown above may seem low. However, Asian Americans who are still registered as Republicans have become rare a species, just like the situation in all minority communities. The huge national poll on Asian Americans, sponsored by the National Science Foundation in 2001*, done with the highest polling standards, showed only 22% Asian Ams Republicans. In the 7 years since 2001, the % of AsAm Republicans has apparently decreased further.